Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 32 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2449 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2449 PHX 05:50 → LAS 07:05 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1022 PHX 18:04 → LAS 19:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2449 Southwest	PHX 05:50	LAS 07:05	2%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3281 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:45	LAS 06:50	3%	1%	0.3%	100%
WN 3039 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 06:40	LAS 07:50	4%	1%	0.3%	95%
WN 2108 Southwest	PHX 07:30	LAS 08:45	6%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2336 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:30	LAS 08:40	8%	2%	0.2%	95%
AA 1956 American	PHX 07:20	LAS 08:42	10%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 186 Southwest	PHX 09:03	LAS 10:18	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2004 American Flight history →	PHX 07:45	LAS 08:57	12%	4%	0.4%	90%
WN 4543 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:40	LAS 10:50	13%	3%	0.7%	92%
WN 2652 Southwest	PHX 10:28	LAS 11:43	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1568 American	PHX 10:20	LAS 11:47	16%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 1932 Southwest	PHX 11:38	LAS 12:53	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1351 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	LAS 23:55	20%	6%	0.6%	52%
WN 2328 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:05	LAS 12:15	22%	4%	0.6%	50%
AA 2037 American Flight history →	PHX 10:24	LAS 11:37	22%	7%	0.9%	90%worse than usual
AA 1613 American	PHX 11:25	LAS 12:52	22%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 4453 Southwest	PHX 13:46	LAS 15:01	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3406 Southwest	PHX 15:01	LAS 16:16	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1382 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:15	LAS 14:25	26%	5%	0.6%	79%
F9 1019 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 07:45	LAS 08:51	26%	8%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
AA 1541 American Flight history →	PHX 13:43	LAS 14:57	27%	9%	1.0%	77%
WN 1662 Southwest	PHX 16:16	LAS 17:31	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 4454 Southwest	PHX 17:11	LAS 18:26	28%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3283 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:00	LAS 17:10	30%	8%	0.6%	41%
WN 611 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:50	LAS 16:00	30%	7%	0.6%	54%
AA 2106 American Flight history →	PHX 20:36	LAS 21:43	30%	13%	1.2%	68%
WN 2281 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:40	LAS 19:45	31%	9%	0.6%	16%
AA 2023 American Flight history →	PHX 13:45	LAS 14:55	31%	10%	0.8%	70%
F9 4113 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 19:20	LAS 20:43	33%	19%	1.2%	69%
F9 3983 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 17:14	LAS 18:38	33%	19%	0.9%	93%worse than usual
AA 1565 American	PHX 17:08	LAS 18:23	35%	12%	0.9%	no record
AA 1022 American Flight history →	PHX 18:04	LAS 19:15	37%	13%	1.0%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON