Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2764 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2764 PHX 05:40 → LAX 07:07 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2388 PHX 15:50 → LAX 17:10 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2764 Southwest	PHX 05:40	LAX 07:07	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 5849 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 06:00	LAX 07:37	6%	5%	0.6%	94%
DL 4057 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 06:00	LAX 07:32	7%	5%	0.6%	97%
OO 5939 SkyWest	PHX 06:31	LAX 08:03	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 6032 SkyWest	PHX 10:33	LAX 12:20	11%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:37	LAX 12:08	12%	7%	0.6%	90%
WN 2504 Southwest	PHX 07:50	LAX 09:17	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 12:15	LAX 13:46	13%	6%	0.6%	87%
WN 2427 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:55	LAX 09:20	14%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 5718 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 15:50	LAX 17:27	14%	8%	0.6%	91%
UA 2318 United	PHX 07:55	LAX 09:23	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2487 United Flight history →	PHX 10:06	LAX 11:31	15%	5%	0.6%	91%
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:02	LAX 17:34	15%	7%	0.6%	86%
UA 4722 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:54	LAX 20:31	15%	9%	0.7%	97%worse than usual
AA 2972 American	PHX 07:18	LAX 08:57	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1668 American Flight history →	PHX 07:15	LAX 08:49	17%	5%	0.6%	89%
AA 1892 American Flight history →	PHX 08:00	LAX 09:34	19%	5%	0.6%	88%
DL 4077 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:18	LAX 21:50	19%	10%	0.7%	84%
WN 2664 Southwest	PHX 11:06	LAX 12:33	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2027 American	PHX 10:28	LAX 11:56	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4602 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:20	LAX 12:45	22%	3%	0.5%	75%
F9 3303 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 11:35	LAX 13:01	25%	10%	0.9%	84%
AA 463 American Flight history →	PHX 14:02	LAX 15:30	30%	6%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
WN 868 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	LAX 00:10	31%	7%	0.5%	50%
AA 2368 American Flight history →	PHX 14:55	LAX 16:19	31%	7%	0.6%	79%worse than usual
AA 2930 American Flight history →	PHX 16:45	LAX 18:12	34%	9%	0.7%	68%
AA 3204 American Flight history →	PHX 20:38	LAX 22:07	36%	10%	0.7%	67%
WN 2438 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:55	LAX 20:20	37%	9%	0.5%	45%
WN 2388 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:50	LAX 17:10	40%	6%	0.5%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON