Today: WN 2576 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet today WN 2576 PHX 08:15 → LGB 09:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3416 PHX 19:50 → LGB 21:17 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2576 Southwest	PHX 08:15	LGB 09:42	8%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 165 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:35	LGB 09:55	9%	1%	0.2%	92%
WN 2505 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:40	LGB 12:55	11%	2%	0.1%	84%
WN 3437 Southwest	PHX 12:40	LGB 14:07	16%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 3896 Southwest	PHX 16:00	LGB 17:28	24%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 149 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:40	LGB 17:55	26%	4%	0.2%	56%
WN 4352 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:15	LGB 20:35	28%	6%	0.5%	59%
WN 3416 Southwest	PHX 19:50	LGB 21:17	30%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON