Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:55 am at Phoenix)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: OO 6208 at 20:12 is the safest bet, 37% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 49%.

Nonstops today


OO 6208 SkyWest	PHX 20:12	MAF 00:03	37%	14%	1.0%	no record
AA 4892 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 19:00	MAF 22:48	49%	15%	0.3%	71%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 08:30 → IAH 13:06UA 2812	3h 29m Houston	IAH 16:35 → MAF 18:15UA 6233 · flown by Mesa	7h 45m	98%	84%
American Details →	PHX 13:35 → DFW 18:12AA 1079	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:35 → MAF 22:53AA 4116 · flown by Envoy	7h 18m	97%	80%
Southwest Details →	PHX 08:00 → DAL 12:25WN 875	3h 45m Dallas	DAL 16:10 → MAF 17:25WN 488	7h 25m	100%	73%
American Details →	PHX 08:30 → DFW 13:05AA 2719	2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:36 → MAF 16:53AA 3653 · flown by Envoy	6h 23m	96%	73%
Southwest Details →	PHX 14:50 → DAL 19:15WN 1937	2h 40m Dallas	DAL 21:55 → MAF 23:17WN 1396	6h 27m	100%	72%
American Details →	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:13 → MAF 19:32AA 4279 · flown by Envoy	7h 01m	96%	72%
American Details →	PHX 12:19 → DFW 16:55AA 1648	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:35 → MAF 21:53AA 3541 · flown by Envoy	7h 34m	97%	71%
Southwest Details →	PHX 09:40 → LAS 10:50WN 4543	2h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 13:05 → MAF 17:15WN 4331	5h 35m	100%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	PHX 10:55 → DAL 15:20WN 3255	50m Dallas	DAL 16:10 → MAF 17:25WN 488	4h 30m	66%	48%
Southwest Details →	PHX 11:05 → LAS 12:15WN 2328	50m Las Vegas	LAS 13:05 → MAF 17:15WN 4331	4h 10m	66%	46%
Southwest Details →	PHX 17:10 → DEN 20:00WN 4758	55m Denver	DEN 20:55 → MAF 23:45WN 3473	4h 35m	55%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON