Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Today: WN 3417 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet today WN 3417 PHX 05:07 → MCI 09:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 623 PHX 19:32 → MCI 00:13 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3417 Southwest	PHX 05:07	MCI 09:51	5%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 2563 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 06:05	MCI 10:35	6%	1%	0.1%	97%
AA 2058 American Flight history →	PHX 08:35	MCI 13:26	14%	7%	0.4%	86%
AA 1635 American	PHX 08:52	MCI 13:45	15%	7%	0.4%	no record
WN 3290 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:30	MCI 15:00	16%	3%	0.5%	78%
WN 3418 Southwest	PHX 09:25	MCI 14:05	18%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 3459 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 20:55	MCI 01:35	30%	7%	0.5%	40%
WN 1639 Southwest	PHX 20:55	MCI 01:36	30%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 3421 Southwest	PHX 13:55	MCI 18:41	31%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 3291 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:00	MCI 20:35	33%	6%	0.5%	42%
WN 4949 Southwest	PHX 18:59	MCI 23:45	35%	8%	0.5%	no record
AA 623 American Flight history →	PHX 19:32	MCI 00:13	35%	7%	1.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON