Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4508 at 23:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4508 PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1663 PHX 09:01 → MCO 16:27 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4508 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 23:05	MCO 06:20	14%	6%	1.2%	81%
WN 1817 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:55	MCO 15:15	18%	5%	0.8%	87%
F9 1086 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 00:12	MCO 07:37	18%	8%	1.3%	76%
WN 1431 Southwest	PHX 08:00	MCO 15:12	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 563 American Flight history →	PHX 21:51	MCO 05:00	24%	8%	1.2%	73%
AA 2105 American Flight history →	PHX 08:50	MCO 16:20	25%	7%	1.3%	64%
AA 1663 American	PHX 09:01	MCO 16:27	26%	7%	1.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHX 07:55 → SAT 12:05WN 4081	1h 00m San Antonio	SAT 13:05 → MCO 16:51WN 1188	5h 56m	92%	69%
American Details →	PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 05:56 → MCO 09:40AA 3085	6h 04m	78%	66%
Southwest Details →	PHX 08:00 → DAL 12:25WN 875	1h 03m Dallas	DAL 13:28 → MCO 17:03WN 1407	6h 03m	89%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON