Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3425 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3425 PHX 06:35 → MDW 11:58 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2521 PHX 19:15 → MDW 00:40 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 8% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3425 Southwest	PHX 06:35	MDW 11:58	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2723 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:00	MDW 10:20	5%	1%	0.2%	85%
WN 3295 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 06:25	MDW 11:40	6%	1%	0.2%	90%
WN 3296 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:30	MDW 12:50	8%	2%	0.6%	77%
WN 3429 Southwest	PHX 00:35	MDW 05:58	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 1343 Southwest	PHX 08:11	MDW 13:40	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4245 Southwest	PHX 10:01	MDW 15:31	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4066 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:00	MDW 15:15	18%	3%	0.6%	55%
WN 1181 Southwest	PHX 12:21	MDW 17:50	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3297 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:35	MDW 19:55	23%	6%	0.6%	42%
WN 4085 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:55	MDW 21:15	25%	6%	0.6%	62%
WN 3427 Southwest	PHX 15:51	MDW 21:17	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2206 Southwest	PHX 16:35	MDW 22:01	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2521 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:15	MDW 00:40	28%	7%	0.6%	8%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON