Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 6240 PHX 10:32 → MFR 12:33 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6437 PHX 20:49 → MFR 23:24 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6240 SkyWest	PHX 10:32	MFR 12:33	17%	8%	0.2%	no record
AA 4915 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 21:10	MFR 23:38	25%	10%	0.2%	72%
OO 6437 SkyWest	PHX 20:49	MFR 23:24	26%	10%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON