Today: WN 4104 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet today WN 4104 PHX 07:40 → MKE 13:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 1369 PHX 16:11 → MKE 21:38 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4104 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:40	MKE 13:00	11%	2%	0.1%	76%
WN 4536 Southwest	PHX 07:10	MKE 12:33	14%	3%	0.1%	no record
AA 1728 American	PHX 08:40	MKE 14:09	20%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 3430 Southwest	PHX 11:05	MKE 16:29	29%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 3300 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:55	MKE 01:20	32%	10%	0.5%	38%
WN 4861 Southwest	PHX 18:55	MKE 00:20	33%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 1369 American Flight history →	PHX 16:11	MKE 21:38	35%	10%	0.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON