Today: AA 3720 at 10:04 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet today AA 3720 PHX 10:04 → MRY 12:05 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 6268 PHX 13:43 → MRY 15:38 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 3720 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:04	MRY 12:05	20%	4%	0.7%	86%
MQ 4014 Envoy	PHX 13:51	MRY 15:59	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3592 Envoy	PHX 20:26	MRY 22:25	24%	6%	1.0%	no record
OO 6325 SkyWest	PHX 10:23	MRY 12:40	27%	8%	0.4%	no record
AA 6374 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:37	MRY 22:33	28%	10%	1.3%	79%
OO 4944 SkyWest	PHX 16:37	MRY 18:45	33%	11%	0.6%	no record
AA 2884 American Flight history →	PHX 16:36	MRY 18:28	33%	13%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
AA 6268 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:43	MRY 15:38	39%	10%	0.4%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON