Today: DL 2553 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–39%.

Safest bet today DL 2553 PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3142 PHX 18:50 → MSP 23:58 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2553 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:45	MSP 11:50	7%	2%	0.1%	95%
DL 1047 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:42	MSP 14:45	17%	3%	0.1%	88%
AA 1750 American Flight history →	PHX 08:35	MSP 13:54	17%	4%	0.1%	83%
DL 2284 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:17	MSP 22:29	19%	6%	0.7%	84%
AA 408 American Flight history →	PHX 08:40	MSP 13:45	20%	4%	0.1%	85%
DL 2208 Delta Flight history →	PHX 11:48	MSP 16:55	22%	4%	0.1%	92%worse than usual
DL 2274 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:51	MSP 19:00	22%	4%	0.1%	81%
AA 2820 American Flight history →	PHX 19:02	MSP 00:05	33%	8%	1.0%	79%worse than usual
AA 3142 American Flight history →	PHX 18:50	MSP 23:58	39%	9%	1.0%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON