Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3434 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3434 PHX 05:10 → OAK 07:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3305 PHX 16:30 → OAK 18:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3434 Southwest	PHX 05:10	OAK 07:11	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4838 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:15	OAK 07:10	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 3303 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:45	OAK 09:45	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 3435 Southwest	PHX 08:12	OAK 10:13	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2680 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:40	OAK 11:35	13%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 678 Southwest	PHX 11:07	OAK 13:09	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3306 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:25	OAK 23:20	23%	9%	0.5%	62%
WN 3305 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:30	OAK 18:25	25%	8%	0.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON