Today: AS 650 at 20:56 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–58%.

Safest bet today AS 650 PHX 20:56 → PDX 23:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest WN 3469 PHX 20:02 → PDX 22:18 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 650 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 20:56	PDX 23:38	28%	9%	0.2%	73%
AS 512 Alaska	PHX 20:54	PDX 23:39	29%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 1682 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:55	PDX 21:30	48%	11%	0.2%	18%
WN 3452 Southwest	PHX 22:36	PDX 01:23	48%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 3175 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	PDX 01:25	48%	9%	0.2%	67%worse than usual
AA 561 American Flight history →	PHX 20:25	PDX 23:08	50%	15%	0.2%	68%worse than usual
WN 3469 Southwest	PHX 20:02	PDX 22:18	58%	11%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON