Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 38–44% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2871 PHX 15:46 → PIT 22:51 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest WN 793 PHX 16:55 → PIT 23:54 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2871 American Flight history →	PHX 15:46	PIT 22:51	38%	10%	0.2%	78%worse than usual
WN 4804 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:55	PIT 23:55	42%	7%	0.1%	36%
WN 793 Southwest	PHX 16:55	PIT 23:54	44%	8%	0.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHX 11:25 → DEN 14:10WN 681	1h 10m Denver	DEN 15:20 → PIT 20:22WN 4424	5h 57m	80%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON