tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:33 am at Phoenix); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 6292 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 20:34 PSC 23:19 25% 7% 0.4% 81%
AA 5006 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 20:38 PSC 23:19 26% 8% 0.4% 83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738 3h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → PSC 23:54DL 1712 6h 49m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 18:25 → PSC 19:45DL 762 7h 57m 92% 74%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:26 → DEN 16:18UA 709 3h 00m Denver DEN 19:18 → PSC 20:53UA 1737 7h 27m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 3h 43m Seattle SEA 22:45 → PSC 23:53DL 4017 · flown by SkyWest 7h 59m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:31 → DEN 16:27UA 1615 2h 57m Denver DEN 19:24 → PSC 20:52UA 1913 7h 21m 93% 65%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 17:48 → PDX 20:30AS 662 1h 20m Portland PDX 21:50 → PSC 22:44AS 3066 · flown by SkyWest 4h 56m 81% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 19:47 → SFO 21:50UA 2837 50m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → PSC 00:50 +1UA 6044 · flown by SkyWest 5h 03m 61% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON