Today: AA 3949 at 15:38 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–43%.

Safest bet today AA 3949 PHX 15:38 → PSP 16:58 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 4922 PHX 20:23 → PSP 21:32 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 3949 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 15:38	PSP 16:58	18%	4%	0.4%	91%
AA 2330 American Flight history →	PHX 10:40	PSP 11:50	22%	6%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
AA 1884 American Flight history →	PHX 10:51	PSP 11:42	24%	6%	0.2%	78%
AA 2562 American Flight history →	PHX 17:13	PSP 18:28	35%	8%	0.3%	55%
AA 2929 American Flight history →	PHX 15:05	PSP 16:10	36%	8%	0.2%	86%worse than usual
AA 2333 American Flight history →	PHX 17:47	PSP 18:52	39%	10%	0.4%	73%worse than usual
AA 4922 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:23	PSP 21:32	43%	10%	0.3%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON