Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:38 pm at Phoenix); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 13:35, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Rapid City on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 13:35 → DFW 18:12AA 1079	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:03 → RAP 21:31AA 3567 · flown by Envoy	6h 56m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → RAP 22:26DL 3714 · flown by SkyWest	7h 35m	93%	68%
United Details →	PHX 16:25 → DEN 19:21UA 624	1h 49m Denver	DEN 21:10 → RAP 22:25UA 2781	5h 00m	84%	58%
United Details →	PHX 13:27 → DEN 16:19UA 709	1h 36m Denver	DEN 17:55 → RAP 19:24UA 5225 · flown by SkyWest	4h 57m	89%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON