Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3770 PHX 10:28 → RDM 13:07 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 3597 PHX 20:26 → RDM 22:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3770 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:28	RDM 13:07	12%	4%	0.2%	81%
AA 3929 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 11:11	RDM 14:01	14%	3%	0.2%	87%
AA 3597 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 20:26	RDM 22:59	16%	5%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON