Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:49 pm at Phoenix); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47% (calm day: 31%). Best bet: Southwest via Denver, leaving 15:25, 32% on time.

Nonstops today


AA 2332 American Flight history →	PHX 15:41	RDU 22:58	42%	15%	0.2%	74%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59DL 2932	7h 08m	87%	72%
United Details →	PHX 14:01 → IAD 21:11UA 1017	1h 14m Dulles	IAD 22:25 → RDU 23:44UA 2382	6h 43m	86%	69%
American Details →	PHX 14:03 → CLT 21:18AA 1211	1h 39m Charlotte	CLT 22:57 → RDU 23:58AA 494	6h 55m	85%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	PHX 15:25 → DEN 18:10WN 3265	56m Denver	DEN 19:06 → RDU 00:28 +1WN 1746	6h 03m	39%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON