Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: WN 418 at 22:31, 43%.

Safest bet today WN 418 PHX 22:31 → RNO 00:29 · 43% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3331 PHX 16:35 → RNO 18:20 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Weather 46% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 418 Southwest	PHX 22:31	RNO 00:29	43%	10%	0.3%	no record
AA 3113 American Flight history →	PHX 16:48	RNO 18:44	45%	15%	0.4%	89%worse than usual
WN 656 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	RNO 00:35	46%	10%	0.3%	56%
AA 1765 American Flight history →	PHX 20:38	RNO 22:25	46%	15%	0.4%	70%worse than usual
WN 3331 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:35	RNO 18:20	48%	10%	0.2%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON