Today: AA 4165 at 13:57 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–43%.

Safest bet today AA 4165 PHX 13:57 → RNO 15:51 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest WN 3331 PHX 16:35 → RNO 18:20 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4165 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 13:57	RNO 15:51	17%	6%	0.3%	79%
WN 418 Southwest	PHX 22:31	RNO 00:29	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2418 American Flight history →	PHX 10:12	RNO 12:05	20%	6%	0.2%	77%
AA 1437 American Flight history →	PHX 10:24	RNO 12:04	22%	6%	0.2%	85%
WN 656 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	RNO 00:35	22%	6%	0.6%	56%
WN 3475 Southwest	PHX 13:50	RNO 15:45	31%	6%	0.2%	no record
OO 6494 SkyWest	PHX 13:58	RNO 16:07	33%	11%	0.5%	no record
AA 1765 American Flight history →	PHX 20:38	RNO 22:25	38%	13%	0.3%	70%
AA 3113 American Flight history →	PHX 16:47	RNO 18:44	39%	11%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
WN 3331 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:35	RNO 18:20	43%	9%	0.2%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON