Today: WN 4119 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–44%.

Safest bet today WN 4119 PHX 07:00 → SAN 08:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest OO 3310 PHX 15:44 → SAN 17:10 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4119 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:00	SAN 08:15	9%	2%	0.6%	100%
WN 4486 Southwest	PHX 07:13	SAN 08:01	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2771 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:55	SAN 09:10	18%	3%	0.5%	71%
WN 3742 Southwest	PHX 08:50	SAN 10:13	21%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 2461 American Flight history →	PHX 07:34	SAN 08:51	21%	6%	0.6%	79%
AA 2226 American	PHX 07:43	SAN 09:05	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 1571 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 08:12	SAN 09:44	26%	9%	0.7%	78%
WN 1434 Southwest	PHX 09:50	SAN 11:12	26%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 1851 American	PHX 10:56	SAN 12:29	30%	14%	0.4%	no record
AA 2477 American Flight history →	PHX 10:30	SAN 11:47	30%	11%	0.5%	68%
WN 2921 Southwest	PHX 22:50	SAN 00:12	31%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 652 Southwest	PHX 11:49	SAN 13:12	32%	7%	0.5%	no record
OO 3144 SkyWest	PHX 10:14	SAN 11:40	33%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 2395 Southwest	PHX 16:45	SAN 18:07	35%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 3481 Southwest	PHX 21:55	SAN 23:18	36%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 385 Southwest	PHX 13:30	SAN 14:53	36%	7%	0.4%	no record
WN 3426 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:55	SAN 23:10	37%	9%	0.7%	55%
AS 3060 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:53	SAN 20:23	37%	13%	1.2%	71%
AA 1862 American	PHX 17:03	SAN 18:28	38%	10%	1.2%	no record
WN 2235 Southwest	PHX 17:55	SAN 19:18	39%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3323 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:00	SAN 13:10	39%	7%	0.5%	35%
WN 4846 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:45	SAN 13:55	40%	7%	0.4%	25%
WN 3017 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:30	SAN 17:40	41%	8%	0.7%	29%
AA 2466 American Flight history →	PHX 17:06	SAN 18:18	41%	10%	1.0%	46%
WN 2580 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:55	SAN 21:05	42%	9%	0.7%	12%
AA 559 American Flight history →	PHX 20:20	SAN 21:34	42%	12%	1.2%	62%
WN 3324 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:15	SAN 19:25	44%	9%	0.7%	36%
AS 3028 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:05	SAN 14:33	45%	10%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
AA 1951 American Flight history →	PHX 14:08	SAN 15:30	46%	13%	0.5%	68%worse than usual
WN 4912 Southwest	PHX 14:55	SAN 16:17	46%	8%	0.5%	no record
AA 2470 American Flight history →	PHX 14:16	SAN 15:26	48%	12%	0.5%	63%worse than usual
OO 3310 SkyWest	PHX 15:44	SAN 17:10	51%	14%	0.6%	no record
AS 2045 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 07:11	SAN 08:36	19%	5%	15.7%	81%
AS 2028 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 15:13	SAN 16:35	50%	15%	0.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON