tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:33 am at Phoenix); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: AA 3984 at 07:49 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet today AA 3984 PHX 07:49 → SBA 09:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1731 PHX 20:27 → SBA 21:57 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time
Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.
AA 3984 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 07:49 SBA 09:32 11% 3% 0.4% 96%
AA 3784 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 10:04 SBA 11:46 16% 4% 0.4% 96%worse than usual
MQ 3467 Envoy PHX 13:36 SBA 15:19 18% 5% 0.4% no record
AA 3900 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 16:36 SBA 18:19 21% 6% 0.4% 89%
AA 1855 American PHX 21:13 SBA 22:57 25% 10% 1.3% no record
AA 3256 American PHX 11:06 SBA 12:59 31% 9% 0.4% no record
AA 4927 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 16:41 SBA 18:17 31% 11% 0.3% 69%
AA 1731 American Flight history → PHX 20:27 SBA 21:57 33% 12% 1.6% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON