Today: UA 693 at 19:36 is the safest bet, 32% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–43%.

Safest bet today UA 693 PHX 19:36 → SFO 21:46 · 32% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 686 PHX 20:23 → SFO 22:23 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 693 United	PHX 19:36	SFO 21:46	32%	10%	0.2%	no record
OO 5985 SkyWest	PHX 15:51	SFO 17:29	35%	9%	0.2%	no record
UA 2837 United Flight history →	PHX 19:47	SFO 21:50	35%	9%	0.2%	19%
AA 2421 American Flight history →	PHX 17:25	SFO 19:32	38%	10%	0.4%	69%
WN 4171 Southwest	PHX 22:35	SFO 00:42	42%	9%	0.1%	no record
WN 1098 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:50	SFO 00:55	42%	9%	0.1%	58%
AA 686 American Flight history →	PHX 20:23	SFO 22:23	43%	10%	0.3%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON