Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1535 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1535 PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 3103 PHX 15:48 → SLC 18:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1535 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	SLC 08:37	5%	3%	0.6%	97%
WN 2355 Southwest	PHX 07:05	SLC 09:47	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
F9 1440 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 05:55	SLC 08:43	7%	5%	0.8%	93%
WN 3339 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:45	SLC 10:25	8%	2%	0.4%	96%
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:45	SLC 12:21	10%	4%	0.6%	95%
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:39	SLC 11:37	10%	5%	0.5%	91%
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:05	SLC 19:43	10%	6%	0.6%	88%
AA 6462 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:24	SLC 13:23	11%	6%	0.5%	100%worse than usual
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:20	SLC 15:58	11%	5%	0.6%	89%
WN 4913 Southwest	PHX 10:23	SLC 13:03	14%	3%	0.4%	no record
DL 1451 Delta Flight history →	PHX 19:20	SLC 21:59	14%	6%	0.6%	87%
F9 3872 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 09:18	SLC 11:56	16%	8%	0.7%	93%
WN 147 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:40	SLC 14:10	18%	3%	0.4%	65%
AA 4928 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 15:26	SLC 18:10	19%	8%	0.5%	64%
AA 4921 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:20	SLC 23:03	20%	9%	0.5%	73%
WN 2489 Southwest	PHX 13:10	SLC 15:53	20%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 849 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:50	SLC 01:30	20%	6%	0.4%	40%
WN 897 Southwest	PHX 15:10	SLC 17:50	23%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 4792 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:30	SLC 00:10	23%	7%	0.4%	58%
F9 2526 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 15:32	SLC 18:21	23%	11%	0.7%	85%
WN 4867 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 17:00	SLC 19:35	25%	6%	0.4%	46%
AA 3103 American Flight history →	PHX 15:48	SLC 18:30	30%	9%	0.7%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON