Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Today: WN 3504 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet today WN 3504 PHX 05:35 → SMF 07:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2048 PHX 20:48 → SMF 22:42 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3504 Southwest	PHX 05:35	SMF 07:40	3%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 3343 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:20	SMF 07:15	4%	1%	0.1%	100%
WN 3482 Southwest	PHX 07:10	SMF 09:15	6%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 2885 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:45	SMF 09:45	9%	1%	0.1%	94%
AA 4099 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:15	SMF 09:21	9%	3%	0.2%	92%
MQ 4215 Envoy	PHX 07:27	SMF 09:46	10%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 249 Southwest	PHX 09:36	SMF 11:40	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 781 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:35	SMF 11:30	13%	3%	0.5%	88%
MQ 4220 Envoy	PHX 13:48	SMF 16:05	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1677 American Flight history →	PHX 10:09	SMF 12:31	16%	7%	0.7%	88%
WN 4208 Southwest	PHX 11:41	SMF 13:46	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 6354 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:37	SMF 15:41	20%	9%	0.7%	87%
WN 4757 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	SMF 00:40	24%	6%	0.5%	67%
AA 2630 American Flight history →	PHX 10:04	SMF 12:04	24%	7%	0.7%	76%
WN 148 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:00	SMF 16:55	25%	6%	0.5%	50%
WN 3484 Southwest	PHX 18:05	SMF 20:11	30%	8%	0.5%	no record
AA 464 American	PHX 18:14	SMF 20:24	31%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 2048 American Flight history →	PHX 20:48	SMF 22:42	35%	9%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON