Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3347 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3347 PHX 07:00 → SNA 08:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 4510 PHX 16:45 → SNA 18:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3347 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:00	SNA 08:20	7%	2%	0.6%	100%
WN 1828 Southwest	PHX 07:25	SNA 08:49	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2015 American	PHX 07:39	SNA 09:17	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2660 American Flight history →	PHX 07:37	SNA 08:59	13%	5%	0.7%	92%
AA 2283 American	PHX 10:16	SNA 11:57	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 4957 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 07:15	SNA 08:48	13%	8%	0.8%	83%
WN 3322 Southwest	PHX 09:05	SNA 10:29	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3001 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:55	SNA 11:15	15%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 2655 American Flight history →	PHX 10:15	SNA 11:43	16%	6%	0.7%	62%
AA 2454 American Flight history →	PHX 11:03	SNA 12:45	19%	6%	0.7%	68%
WN 375 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:40	SNA 13:55	20%	4%	0.6%	69%
WN 2957 Southwest	PHX 11:05	SNA 12:29	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4107 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:10	SNA 22:25	22%	4%	0.6%	76%
AA 3171 American Flight history →	PHX 11:04	SNA 12:30	22%	7%	0.7%	68%
WN 4690 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:05	SNA 15:20	23%	5%	0.6%	83%
AA 2637 American Flight history →	PHX 21:07	SNA 22:26	23%	5%	0.7%	82%
AA 2659 American Flight history →	PHX 14:15	SNA 15:33	24%	9%	0.7%	73%
AA 2685 American Flight history →	PHX 17:21	SNA 18:40	25%	6%	0.7%	68%
WN 4906 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:00	SNA 19:10	30%	6%	0.6%	63%
WN 4510 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:45	SNA 18:00	30%	6%	0.6%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON