Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Today: WN 2758 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–31%.

Safest bet today WN 2758 PHX 05:10 → STL 10:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 890 PHX 15:48 → STL 20:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2758 Southwest	PHX 05:10	STL 10:09	5%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 3352 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:00	STL 09:50	6%	1%	0.1%	93%
WN 1452 Southwest	PHX 07:45	STL 12:48	9%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 1467 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:40	STL 13:40	14%	2%	0.1%	82%
AA 590 American Flight history →	PHX 08:38	STL 13:56	15%	5%	0.2%	83%
AA 3179 American Flight history →	PHX 08:39	STL 13:53	16%	5%	0.2%	72%
WN 133 Southwest	PHX 12:50	STL 17:51	24%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 3493 Southwest	PHX 20:25	STL 01:27	27%	9%	0.4%	no record
WN 4801 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:35	STL 18:30	27%	6%	0.4%	75%
WN 3353 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:40	STL 21:35	30%	9%	0.4%	56%
WN 3492 Southwest	PHX 18:30	STL 23:31	31%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 890 American Flight history →	PHX 15:48	STL 20:54	33%	13%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON