Today: AA 3757 at 13:43 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–29%.

Safest bet today AA 3757 PHX 13:43 → STS 16:07 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 6459 PHX 13:35 → STS 15:42 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 3757 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 13:43	STS 16:07	17%	4%	0.4%	96%worse than usual
AA 4114 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:34	STS 12:25	20%	4%	0.5%	69%
AA 6459 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:35	STS 15:42	29%	10%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON