Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3585 at 19:29, 33%.

Safest bet today AA 3585 PHX 19:29 → TUL 00:04 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest WN 3356 PHX 18:05 → TUL 22:25 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Weather 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3585 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 19:29	TUL 00:04	33%	6%	0.3%	64%
AA 4037 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 19:04	TUL 23:30	35%	7%	0.3%	65%
WN 3356 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:05	TUL 22:25	54%	10%	0.2%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON