tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:43 am at Phoenix); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 4086 at 15:49, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4086 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 15:49 XNA 20:30 15% 4% 0.2% 82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 3h 19m Chicago ORD 21:27 → XNA 23:15AA 3941 · flown by Envoy 9h 00m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:19 → DFW 16:55AA 1648 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:57 → XNA 21:20AA 4101 · flown by Envoy 7h 01m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → PHX 14:03 → LAX 15:29AA 463 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 17:49 → XNA 23:17AA 6187 · flown by SkyWest 7h 14m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → PHX 15:15 → DFW 19:53AA 2113 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → XNA 23:47AA 3693 · flown by Envoy 6h 32m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:14 → ORD 18:49UA 1842 2h 41m Chicago ORD 21:30 → XNA 23:31UA 5767 · flown by SkyWest 8h 17m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 23:03 → XNA 00:04 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest 8h 49m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:26 → DEN 16:19UA 709 1h 31m Denver DEN 17:50 → XNA 20:48UA 1351 5h 22m 90% 68%
UnitedDetails → PHX 16:25 → DEN 19:21UA 624 1h 16m Denver DEN 20:37 → XNA 23:44UA 5269 · flown by SkyWest 5h 19m 79% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 50m Chicago ORD 18:58 → XNA 20:46AA 3578 · flown by Envoy 6h 31m 64% 51%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:52 → MIA 20:28AA 1983 48m Miami MIA 21:16 → XNA 23:23AA 4049 · flown by Envoy 8h 31m 61% 51%
AmericanDetails → PHX 17:02 → DFW 21:24AA 2210 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → XNA 23:47AA 3693 · flown by Envoy 4h 45m 62% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON