Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5690 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 5690 PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1786 PIT 18:30 → BOS 20:21 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5690 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:00	BOS 08:00	6%	3%	0.4%	92%
DL 5678 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:59	BOS 12:48	8%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 5787 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 19:10	BOS 21:03	11%	8%	0.6%	64%
DL 5731 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 14:25	BOS 16:20	13%	6%	0.6%	72%
B6 1286 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 09:00	BOS 10:39	13%	6%	0.7%	83%
DL 5680 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 18:41	BOS 20:36	14%	6%	0.6%	81%
B6 2186 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 20:38	BOS 22:19	22%	12%	0.8%	79%
B6 386 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 13:11	BOS 15:03	24%	12%	0.7%	74%
B6 1786 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 18:30	BOS 20:21	25%	16%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON