Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4417 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 4417 PIT 05:45 → BWI 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 3033 PIT 17:50 → BWI 19:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4417 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 05:45	BWI 06:55	3%	1%	0.6%	91%
WN 2297 Southwest	PIT 05:50	BWI 07:03	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4671 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 10:30	BWI 11:40	6%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 1283 Southwest	PIT 12:10	BWI 13:24	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3033 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 17:50	BWI 19:00	14%	4%	0.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON