Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 349 at 05:03 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 349 PIT 05:03 → CLT 06:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1715 PIT 17:52 → CLT 19:22 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 349 American Flight history →	PIT 05:03	CLT 06:35	7%	3%	0.7%	96%
AA 376 American Flight history →	PIT 05:04	CLT 06:38	8%	3%	0.6%	97%
AA 384 American Flight history →	PIT 06:38	CLT 08:10	13%	4%	0.6%	91%
AA 2310 American Flight history →	PIT 10:20	CLT 11:55	13%	5%	1.6%	92%
AA 1234 American	PIT 06:48	CLT 08:20	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2651 American	PIT 09:20	CLT 10:55	15%	6%	1.8%	no record
OH 5645 PSA	PIT 13:41	CLT 15:13	16%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 5602 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 20:01	CLT 21:50	16%	9%	0.8%	68%
AA 2295 American Flight history →	PIT 14:00	CLT 15:36	20%	7%	1.3%	68%
AA 2309 American Flight history →	PIT 15:36	CLT 17:15	21%	7%	1.3%	68%
AA 1715 American	PIT 17:52	CLT 19:22	30%	8%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON