Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 20:15, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 4465 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 06:05	DAL 07:55	7%	1%	0.2%	96%
WN 2943 Southwest	PIT 14:15	DAL 16:12	14%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PIT 06:45 → STL 07:30WN 3386	2h 15m St Louis	STL 09:45 → DAL 11:25WN 4196	5h 40m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	PIT 05:45 → BWI 06:55WN 4417	1h 20m Baltimore	BWI 08:15 → DAL 10:25WN 930	5h 40m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	PIT 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 1935	1h 07m Nashville	BNA 08:12 → DAL 10:17WN 523	4h 47m	97%	89%
Southwest Details →	PIT 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 3368	1h 50m Denver	DEN 08:45 → DAL 11:40WN 1360	7h 10m	97%	88%
Southwest Details →	PIT 08:45 → MDW 09:10WN 3378	3h 10m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	6h 50m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	PIT 16:35 → AUS 18:40WN 2866	3h 15m Austin	AUS 21:55 → DAL 23:05WN 280	7h 30m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	PIT 05:10 → MCO 07:30WN 3374	3h 22m Orlando	MCO 10:52 → DAL 12:40WN 354	8h 30m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	PIT 17:50 → BWI 19:00WN 3033	2h 13m Baltimore	BWI 21:13 → DAL 23:41WN 991	6h 51m	96%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	PIT 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 3368	50m Denver	DEN 07:45 → DAL 10:44WN 1572	6h 14m	73%	66%
Southwest Details →	PIT 20:15 → STL 21:00WN 3387	50m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DAL 23:30WN 3904	4h 15m	73%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON