Today: WN 3368 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet today WN 3368 PIT 05:30 → DEN 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4072 PIT 18:40 → DEN 20:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3368 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 05:30	DEN 06:55	3%	1%	0.2%	96%
WN 1603 Southwest	PIT 05:40	DEN 07:11	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
UA 1765 United Flight history →	PIT 08:30	DEN 09:59	8%	3%	0.2%	92%
WN 3369 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 10:55	DEN 12:15	11%	2%	0.1%	74%
UA 1092 United Flight history →	PIT 16:25	DEN 17:55	14%	5%	0.6%	74%
WN 3507 Southwest	PIT 12:00	DEN 13:26	15%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 4287 Southwest	PIT 18:40	DEN 20:05	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1816 United Flight history →	PIT 16:49	DEN 18:14	15%	5%	0.6%	86%
WN 4072 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 18:40	DEN 20:05	18%	4%	0.5%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON