Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3329 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3329 PIT 06:01 → DFW 08:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2307 PIT 19:36 → DFW 21:43 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3329 American Flight history →	PIT 06:01	DFW 08:09	10%	5%	1.6%	92%
AA 762 American Flight history →	PIT 07:01	DFW 09:09	11%	5%	1.6%	88%
AA 1308 American	PIT 07:40	DFW 09:51	14%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 1583 American Flight history →	PIT 11:40	DFW 13:51	14%	6%	1.2%	87%
AA 2290 American Flight history →	PIT 11:40	DFW 13:40	16%	6%	1.2%	85%
AA 2311 American Flight history →	PIT 15:11	DFW 17:19	25%	9%	1.2%	71%
AA 2307 American Flight history →	PIT 19:36	DFW 21:43	28%	9%	1.0%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON