Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 5842 at 10:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day YX 5842 PIT 10:25 → DTW 11:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3598 PIT 19:42 → DTW 21:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5842 Republic	PIT 10:25	DTW 11:42	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 5607 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:25	DTW 11:35	7%	3%	0.5%	91%
YX 5841 Republic	PIT 17:13	DTW 18:30	9%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 5766 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 17:55	DTW 19:08	12%	4%	0.5%	69%
DL 3598 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PIT 19:42	DTW 21:00	20%	11%	0.7%	75%
DL 5319 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 06:30	DTW 07:44	14%	7%	5.8%	86%
DL 5303 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 12:25	DTW 13:34	14%	7%	2.3%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON