Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1964 PIT 13:05 → IAH 15:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 1444 PIT 17:02 → IAH 19:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 1964 United Flight history →	PIT 13:05	IAH 15:08	11%	3%	0.1%	100%worse than usual
UA 1563 United Flight history →	PIT 16:57	IAH 19:13	17%	4%	0.2%	79%
UA 1444 United Flight history →	PIT 17:02	IAH 19:05	18%	4%	0.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON