tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:47 am at Pittsburgh); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 08:30, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1793 Southwest PIT 19:20 LAS 21:12 26% 6% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PIT 15:50 → MDW 16:20WN 4707 3h 55m Chicago MDW 20:15 → LAS 22:05WN 596 9h 15m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542 7h 47m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → PIT 08:51 → JFK 10:30AA 4587 · flown by Republic 2h 29m New York JFK 12:59 → LAS 15:44AA 2536 9h 53m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PIT 08:36 → ORD 09:30UA 3461 · flown by Republic 1h 41m Chicago ORD 11:11 → LAS 13:12UA 1803 7h 36m 97% 82%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 17:50 → BWI 19:00WN 3033 2h 55m Baltimore BWI 21:55 → LAS 00:09 +1WN 274 9h 19m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PIT 08:30 → DEN 09:59UA 1765 1h 23m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 54m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → PIT 10:54 → ORD 11:42UA 455 2h 02m Chicago ORD 13:44 → LAS 15:43UA 704 7h 49m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → PIT 15:06 → IAD 16:12UA 2607 3h 58m Dulles IAD 20:10 → LAS 22:19UA 1764 10h 13m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → PIT 16:35 → AUS 18:40WN 2866 1h 01m Austin AUS 19:41 → LAS 20:35WN 2088 7h 00m 61% 46%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 19:55 → HOU 21:55WN 4604 55m Houston HOU 22:50 → LAS 23:55WN 1058 7h 00m 66% 46%
AmericanDetails → PIT 19:36 → DFW 21:43AA 2307 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:33 → LAS 23:25AA 624 6h 49m 64% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON