Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2055 PIT 15:34 → LAX 17:39 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2301 PIT 18:28 → LAX 20:36 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2055 United	PIT 15:34	LAX 17:39	20%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 1349 United Flight history →	PIT 17:55	LAX 20:07	24%	4%	0.2%	85%
AA 2754 American	PIT 17:44	LAX 19:58	26%	7%	0.2%	no record
AA 2301 American Flight history →	PIT 18:28	LAX 20:36	28%	7%	0.2%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PIT 08:45 → MDW 09:10WN 3378	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → LAX 12:30WN 2433	6h 45m	94%	79%
Southwest Details →	PIT 10:55 → DEN 12:15WN 3369	1h 31m Denver	DEN 13:46 → LAX 15:14WN 1645	7h 19m	98%	77%
American Details →	PIT 09:55 → ORD 10:42AA 4480 · flown by Republic	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 12:04 → LAX 14:24AA 3008	7h 29m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON