Today: DL 845 at 11:23 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Safest bet today DL 845 PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 3709 PIT 19:20 → MSP 20:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 845 Delta Flight history →	PIT 11:23	MSP 12:35	10%	4%	0.1%	80%
DL 3709 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PIT 19:20	MSP 20:50	22%	6%	0.2%	79%
DL 5249 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 16:20	MSP 17:40	35%	19%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON