Today: AA 3278 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–39%.

Safest bet today AA 3278 PIT 05:58 → PHL 07:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1120 PIT 17:41 → PHL 19:04 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3278 American	PIT 05:58	PHL 07:23	8%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 5487 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 05:35	PHL 06:51	9%	4%	2.2%	90%
AA 2335 American Flight history →	PIT 08:00	PHL 09:29	12%	6%	1.0%	90%
AA 3248 American Flight history →	PIT 08:23	PHL 09:54	15%	8%	0.8%	40%
AA 5032 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 13:30	PHL 15:03	23%	11%	0.7%	67%
OH 5124 PSA	PIT 19:52	PHL 21:25	24%	12%	0.8%	no record
AA 5239 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 12:55	PHL 14:12	28%	10%	0.7%	50%
AA 2312 American Flight history →	PIT 17:05	PHL 18:34	37%	11%	1.3%	63%
AA 1120 American	PIT 17:41	PHL 19:04	39%	10%	2.1%	no record
AA 6092 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 19:45	PHL 21:09	25%	7%	14.3%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON