tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:54 am at Pittsburgh); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 18:40, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3383 Southwest Flight history → PIT 13:20 PHX 14:40 21% 3% 0.1% 78%
WN 3481 Southwest PIT 19:50 PHX 21:20 33% 7% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:40 → SLC 19:49DL 1188 2h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 8h 51m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 7h 46m 97% 79%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 18:40 → DEN 20:05WN 4072 2h 05m Denver DEN 22:10 → PHX 23:10WN 1685 7h 30m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → PIT 12:13 → JFK 13:55AA 4568 · flown by Republic 3h 05m New York JFK 17:00 → PHX 19:31AA 2339 10h 18m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → PIT 16:57 → IAH 19:13UA 1563 2h 27m Houston IAH 21:40 → PHX 22:25UA 2432 8h 28m 99% 76%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 16:35 → AUS 18:40WN 2866 2h 55m Austin AUS 21:35 → PHX 22:00WN 378 8h 25m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → PIT 13:05 → IAH 15:08UA 1964 1h 48m Houston IAH 16:56 → PHX 17:58UA 1478 7h 53m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → PIT 17:55 → LAX 20:07UA 1349 1h 15m Los Angeles LAX 21:22 → PHX 22:59UA 5458 · flown by SkyWest 8h 04m 89% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PIT 19:45 → PHL 21:09AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont 50m Philadelphia PHL 21:59 → PHX 00:10 +1AA 2622 7h 25m 68% 39%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 16:35 → AUS 18:40WN 2866 1h 00m Austin AUS 19:40 → PHX 20:05WN 4426 6h 30m 64% 37%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 15:25 → SAN 17:20WN 236 56m San Diego SAN 18:16 → PHX 19:37WN 4710 7h 12m 60% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON