Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 78 PIT 07:30 → SEA 09:49 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 414 PIT 08:06 → SEA 10:19 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 78 Alaska Flight history →	PIT 07:30	SEA 09:49	17%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 412 Alaska Flight history →	PIT 18:10	SEA 20:30	25%	6%	0.6%	69%
AS 414 Alaska	PIT 08:06	SEA 10:19	26%	4%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PIT 06:40 → MSP 07:56DL 2848	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 19m	94%	81%
United Details →	PIT 06:53 → ORD 07:30UA 1803	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38UA 2099	7h 45m	94%	80%
Southwest Details →	PIT 08:45 → MDW 09:10WN 3378	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 10:40 → SEA 13:10WN 1340	7h 25m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON