Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3019 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3019 PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2211 PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3019 Delta Flight history →	PNS 06:00	ATL 08:15	11%	4%	1.8%	93%
DL 3103 Delta Flight history →	PNS 09:22	ATL 11:35	13%	4%	1.3%	92%
DL 3129 Delta Flight history →	PNS 07:00	ATL 09:17	13%	5%	1.8%	92%
DL 3067 Delta Flight history →	PNS 08:01	ATL 10:15	13%	4%	1.3%	91%
DL 3198 Delta Flight history →	PNS 11:57	ATL 14:14	14%	4%	1.0%	91%
DL 3059 Delta Flight history →	PNS 19:31	ATL 21:59	15%	6%	1.3%	76%
DL 1640 Delta Flight history →	PNS 13:54	ATL 16:13	15%	4%	0.9%	88%
DL 1013 Delta Flight history →	PNS 16:18	ATL 18:35	20%	4%	1.2%	84%
DL 2211 Delta Flight history →	PNS 18:08	ATL 20:35	22%	5%	1.3%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON