Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1092 PNS 14:18 → DEN 16:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1514 PNS 17:05 → DEN 19:10 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1092 United	PNS 14:18	DEN 16:35	15%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 1001 United Flight history →	PNS 15:30	DEN 18:05	15%	6%	0.9%	72%
F9 2443 Frontier Flight history →	PNS 15:17	DEN 17:38	21%	9%	1.2%	69%
WN 1514 Southwest Flight history →	PNS 17:05	DEN 19:10	23%	6%	0.8%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON