Today: AA 3748 at 09:27 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–39%.

Safest bet today AA 3748 PNS 09:27 → DFW 11:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 3246 PNS 18:55 → DFW 20:56 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3748 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 09:27	DFW 11:40	14%	6%	1.3%	79%
OH 5499 PSA	PNS 06:57	DFW 09:06	18%	13%	3.0%	no record
AA 3982 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 11:28	DFW 13:26	19%	6%	1.3%	79%
AA 5437 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 07:22	DFW 09:35	21%	14%	2.7%	72%
AA 5353 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 13:55	DFW 16:04	23%	10%	3.4%	57%
AA 3243 American	PNS 13:35	DFW 15:44	24%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 2950 American Flight history →	PNS 12:11	DFW 14:20	25%	9%	1.4%	66%
AA 5355 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 17:27	DFW 19:37	28%	14%	4.3%	73%
AA 2320 American Flight history →	PNS 15:34	DFW 17:48	31%	8%	1.4%	51%
AA 2328 American Flight history →	PNS 16:03	DFW 18:06	31%	8%	1.4%	69%
AA 2314 American Flight history →	PNS 18:53	DFW 21:08	33%	10%	3.2%	44%
AA 3246 American	PNS 18:55	DFW 20:56	39%	12%	3.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON