Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3743 PNS 19:18 → MIA 22:05 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 3749 PNS 17:04 → MIA 19:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 3743 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 19:18	MIA 22:05	20%	5%	0.8%	79%
AA 3719 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 19:15	MIA 22:08	21%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 3749 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 17:04	MIA 19:52	22%	5%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON