Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:19 pm at Pasco); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:21, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Pasco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:17 → MSP 00:53 +1DL 8803	5h 32m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	PSC 13:50 → SLC 16:34DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	47m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	5h 04m	76%	58%
Delta Details →	PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 18:05 → MSP 23:30DL 949	5h 54m	82%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PSC 15:24 → PHX 18:09AA 6220 · flown by SkyWest	53m Phoenix	PHX 19:02 → MSP 00:05 +1AA 2820	6h 41m	68%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON