Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:02 pm at Pasco); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: AA 6220 at 15:24, 39%.

Nonstops today


AA 6220 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 15:24	PHX 18:09	39%	16%	0.6%	69%
OO 6244 SkyWest	PSC 15:44	PHX 18:37	39%	17%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496	6h 10m	100%	80%
United Details →	PSC 13:35 → SFO 15:44UA 5578 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 19:25 → PHX 21:39UA 2347	8h 04m	96%	66%
Delta Details →	PSC 13:50 → SLC 16:34DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	51m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PHX 18:07DL 1451	4h 17m	77%	58%
Delta Details →	PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	1h 42m Seattle	SEA 18:30 → PHX 21:29DL 2698	5h 53m	93%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PSC 15:53 → PDX 17:01AS 2471 · flown by Horizon	48m Portland	PDX 17:49 → PHX 20:30AS 723	4h 37m	5%	2%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON